Mammoth / Eastern Sierra Weather Story:  The Summer Monsoon kicked in more than was expected on Monday. Bishop Creek Canyon and Bishop picked up most of the action, with Mammoth sandwiched in between the main thunderstorm action.

Today does look prime for some juice thunderstorms if we get some clearing during the morning hour. Looking at the window cast as the first light comes out, I see that there are a lot of clouds in the area. If they hang around, those clouds will limit daytime heating, and that would limit any action that would be possible today.

Looking at the ECM ES this morning, we can see high pressure near the four corners with a low well off the Pacific Northwest coast. These features are pulling some moisture into central California and into the eastern Sierra.

Over the next 3-4 days, that low will help push the ridge of high pressure off to the east while the low moves into the northern parts of the Great Basin. That pattern will cool the entire area off by 5-10 degrees and flush out all the precipitation water, bringing an end to the muggy and warm days.

The next ridge of high pressure will be setting up off the California coast by Monday of next week. How close the ridge is to California will determine how warm we get for the big 4th of July Holiday. As of now, temperatures look to be a bit above average.

Snowman

15-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than not over the years.

Temperature Anomaly GIF: Temperatures remain above average for the foreseeable future. However, as of today, no major heat waves are forecast; it is just good old warm summer weather. Enjoy 🙂

*The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.

The Wind Forecast GIF – Looking at the ECMWF wind forecast, wind speeds over the next week will be gusty during the afternoon and early evening hours. That’s when you can expect SW winds at 10-25+ MPH over the high country and wind-prone areas of the Eastern Sierra.

Yep, the wind forecast is about the same all Summer Long. The GIF below shows peak wind gusts over a 6-hour time frame.

Jet Stream – This is the ECMWF ENS Run of the Jet Stream at 200 hPa.

Precipitable Water 144-Hour GIF

Precipitable Water Anomaly 144-Hour GIF Days 16 – 45 ECMWF ENS Run -According to the long-range ECM run below, July is set to be warm but not excessively hot. Precipitation, as expected, is looking on the drier side. That could change, so don’t give up hope on a good monsoon run at some point during the month.

This is the long-range ultra fantasy model run. These runs are good for looking at upcoming trends in the overall weather pattern.