Powder Forecast — Saturday April 22nd, 2017
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Dry weather is expected for Canyon/Eagle closing with breezy/gusty winds followed by clouds and light snow/rain showers Monday. Mostly dry weather is then expected for the rest of the week with breezy/gusty winds late next week followed by fair and warmer weather next weekend. Generally seasonable and dry weather is then expected through mid-May or longer with spring conditions on the mountain. There are no clear signs of any strong storms that would produce powder conditions again.
Next update Tuesday 4/25
Snowfall forecast are for the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge)
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sun 4/23 = 0”
Mon 4/24 = 0”
Tue 4/25 = 0 – 1”
Wed 4/26 = 0”
Thu 4/27 = 0”
Fri 4/28 = 0”
Sat 4/29 = 0”
Sun – Tue 4/30 – 5/2 = 0”
April Snowfall = 68”
April Forecast = 68 – 70”
Seasonal Snowfall = 619”
Seasonal Forecast = 625 – 635”
Detailed 5-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sun 4/23 — No snowfall expected.
Mon 4/24 — Light snow or rain is possible midday and into evening. No more than an inch expected by Tue AM.
Tue 4/25 and Wed 4/26 — No snowfall expected both days.
Satellite imagery (below) shows clouds moving through Mammoth today from a passing front to the North with another trailing low pressure system expected to move through tonight and Sunday. That will mean clouds tonight and then breezy/gusty winds tomorrow with less cloudiness and also cooler temps that will firm up the snow up top. Expect more lift holds on Sunday as it appears the winds today are only shutting down chair 9.
Models are bringing a slightly strong trough of low pressure and front through CA on Monday and into Tuesday (image below). That means more clouds again along with gusty winds plus some light snow or rainfall as snow levels will be rather high during the frontal passage. Looks like snow levels will be around 8.5K, but diurnal heating may cause them to rise to 9K or higher by late afternoon. Liquid amounts will be less than a tenth and any snow will be dust on crust.
Weak high pressure will build into Mammoth by Tuesday afternoon for less wind and warmer temps with clouds at times producing flat light. The ECM model (image below) then moves another slider type low pressure system east of Mammoth late next week for another round of wind and slightly cooler temps, but probably no snowfall other than flurries. Neither of these low pressure systems will produce significant snowfall.
The longer range ensemble mean of the GFS (image below) along with the operational models are favoring the ridge of high pressure off the CA coast to move eastward into CA over the following weekend as a trough of low pressure develops over the mid-continent. That should result in fair/warmer weather along with light winds. Spring conditions everywhere on the mountain.
The longer range GFS ensemble (image below) then moves the trough over the mid-continent back westward over the interior West over the first part of May. This type of pattern supports inside slider type storms that usually means cooler temps/winds and only light snowfall as these storms are devoid of moisture.
The GFS ensemble keeps a similar pattern in place in the fantasy range (image below) for not much change for the first week of May. This should mostly slow the melt a bit and produce winds at times.
Generally seasonable weather is then favored through mid-May. The CFS climate model (image below) innocently keeps a weak jet well north of CA into British Columbia. The ECM model is more bullish about high pressure along the West Coast, but both solutions are dry as the climatological shift of the jet stream northward is normal and called spring. WG