Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast — Saturday April 22, 2017

Powder Forecast — Saturday April 22nd, 2017

Ted Schlaepfer CCM  —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy

Forecast Summary:

  Dry weather is expected for Canyon/Eagle closing with breezy/gusty winds followed by clouds and light snow/rain showers Monday.  Mostly dry weather is then expected for the rest of the week with breezy/gusty winds late next week followed by fair and warmer weather next weekend.  Generally seasonable and dry weather is then expected through mid-May or longer with spring conditions on the mountain.  There are no clear signs of any strong storms that would produce powder conditions again.

Next update Tuesday 4/25

Snowfall forecast are for the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge)

http://patrol.mammothmountain.com:83/Home.aspx

**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)

Sun 4/23 = 0”

Mon 4/24 = 0”

Tue 4/25 = 0 – 1”

Wed 4/26 = 0”

Thu 4/27 = 0”

Fri 4/28 = 0”

Sat 4/29 = 0”

Sun – Tue 4/30 – 5/2 = 0”

April Snowfall = 68”
April Forecast = 68 – 70”

Seasonal Snowfall = 619”
Seasonal Forecast = 625 – 635”

Detailed 5-day Snowfall Forecast:

Sun 4/23 — No snowfall expected.

Mon 4/24 — Light snow or rain is possible midday and into evening.  No more than an inch expected by Tue AM.

Tue 4/25 and Wed 4/26 — No snowfall expected both days.

Forecast Discussion:

Short Term:  

   Satellite imagery (below) shows clouds moving through Mammoth today from a passing front to the North with another trailing low pressure system expected to move through tonight and Sunday.   That will mean clouds tonight and then breezy/gusty winds tomorrow with less cloudiness and also cooler temps that will firm up the snow up top.   Expect more lift holds on Sunday as it appears the winds today are only shutting down chair 9.

   Models are bringing a slightly strong trough of low pressure and front through CA on Monday and into Tuesday (image below).   That means more clouds again along with gusty winds plus some light snow or rainfall as snow levels will be rather high during the frontal passage.  Looks like snow levels will be around 8.5K, but diurnal heating may cause them to rise to 9K or higher by late afternoon.  Liquid amounts will be less than a tenth and any snow will be dust on crust.

   Weak high pressure will build into Mammoth by Tuesday afternoon for less wind and warmer temps with clouds at times producing flat light.   The ECM model (image below) then moves another slider type low pressure system east of Mammoth late next week for another round of wind and slightly cooler temps, but probably no snowfall other than flurries.   Neither of these low pressure systems will produce significant snowfall.

Long Range:

  The longer range ensemble mean of the GFS (image below) along with the operational models are favoring the ridge of high pressure off the CA coast to move eastward into CA over the following weekend as a trough of low pressure develops over the mid-continent.  That should result in fair/warmer weather along with light winds.   Spring conditions everywhere on the mountain.

   The longer range GFS ensemble (image below) then moves the trough over the mid-continent back westward over the interior West over the first part of May.   This type of pattern supports inside slider type storms that usually means cooler temps/winds and only light snowfall as these storms are devoid of moisture.

   The GFS ensemble keeps a similar pattern in place in the fantasy range (image below) for not much change for the first week of May.   This should mostly slow the melt a bit and produce winds at times.

   Generally seasonable weather is then favored through mid-May.  The CFS climate model (image below) innocently keeps a weak jet well north of CA into British Columbia.   The ECM model is more bullish about high pressure along the West Coast, but both solutions are dry as the climatological shift of the jet stream northward is normal and called spring.  WG

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4-20-2016 – Mammoth Mountain & Mammoth Lakes Weather Report

4-20-1017 – 9AM – Hello from Mammoth Mountain and Mammoth Lakes, California.

At this time we have pt cloudy skies in the area. Temperatures have cooled off today and we have gusty winds on the area.

Currently we have highs in the mid to upper 30s in town. At Main Lodge it’s 27 and at the top of Mammoth Mountain it’s 22 degrees with winds gusting to 77 MPH.

Expect highs in town into the low 40s today with 20s and 30s up on Mammoth Mountain. Wind speeds will slowly back down over the next 12 hours.

Starting Friday we expect clear blue skies with light spring winds. Highs will head into the 40s over Mammoth Mountain and into the 50s in town.

Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 50s on the hill with a near 58 town in town. Not as warm as we expected, but looks like we will still get into the low 60s in town by Sunday and Monday.

Winds over the weekend will be light in the morning and pick up as the day goes on. Typical spring conditions over Mammoth Mountain and in the town of Mammoth Lakes.

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Looking West to Mammoth Mountain - Cal Trans Cam Looking SE at SB US 395

Mammoth Lakes Weather Forecast @ 7800 Feet MC Coy Station Weather Forecast @ 9600 Feet

Long Range: The Forecast calls for warming temperatures and dry conditions setting up for the weekend. We could see some cooling earaly next week and there is a slight chance of showers on Tuesday.

Beyond that we see clear blue skis with highs in the 40s and 50s all the way out in the 10-14 day forecast period.

PS Make sure to check our Snowman’s Mammoth Mountain Snow Report at this link.

Snowman out….

Snowman’s Live Cam at 8175 Feet on Canyon Blvd

Mammoth Mountain Satelight

Mammoth Mountain RadarMammoth Mountain Jet StreamMammoth Mountain 10 Day Precipitation OutlookMammoth Mountain Temperature OutlookMammoth Mountain 14 Day Rain and Snow OutlookMammoth Mountain 14 Day Temperature OutlookMJO Outlook Chart GFSPacific SST

Mammoth Mountain & Mammoth Lakes Weather

Looking Back at some Big H20 Winters 

2017 beat all of these with 100+ inches of H20

1. 1983 91.0″ H2O (83.7″ @ 4-1-83)

2. 1969 86.5″ H2O

3. 1995 80.0″ H2O

4. 1967 78.1″ H2O (55.4″ @ 4-1-67)

5. 2006 76.0″ H2O (63.6″ @ 4-1-06) ***

6. 1978 76.0″ H2O (67.8″ @ 4-1-78)

7. 1938 75.2″ H2O

8. 1986 74.0″ H2O (64.0″ @ 4-1-86)

9. 1952 73.7″ H2O

10. 1982 73.0″ H2O

11. 2005 72.5″ H2O (68.5″ @ 4-1-05)

12. 1993 67.1″ H2O

13. 1980 65.8″ H2O

14. 1941 64.0″ H2O

15. 1958 62.0″ H2O

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Steve TaylorSteve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman: Over the last 30+ years, Snowman have spent countless hours studying and learning about mammoth mountain weather and snow conditions first hand.

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with his Video & Photo Blog reports. (No You Tube back then)

Snowman has had his reports, videos and photos featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with Fox, ABC, CBS and NBC News. ________________________________________________________

Ted Schlaepfer – CCM – The Mammoth Weather GuyTed Schlaepfer – CCM – The Mammoth Weather Guy: Bio: Always fascinated with the weather, skiing was just a natural extension of my love for snow and rain.

I started skiing at age 5, first discovered Mammoth Mountain in 1979 as a youth, and have been a regular visitor since.

Putting together the Powder Outlook has been a lot of fun over the last 7 snow seasons.

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Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast

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