4-20-2016 – Mammoth Mountain & Mammoth Lakes Weather Report

4-20-1017 – 9AM – Hello from Mammoth Mountain and Mammoth Lakes, California.

At this time we have pt cloudy skies in the area. Temperatures have cooled off today and we have gusty winds on the area.

Currently we have highs in the mid to upper 30s in town. At Main Lodge it’s 27 and at the top of Mammoth Mountain it’s 22 degrees with winds gusting to 77 MPH.

Expect highs in town into the low 40s today with 20s and 30s up on Mammoth Mountain. Wind speeds will slowly back down over the next 12 hours.

Starting Friday we expect clear blue skies with light spring winds. Highs will head into the 40s over Mammoth Mountain and into the 50s in town.

Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 50s on the hill with a near 58 town in town. Not as warm as we expected, but looks like we will still get into the low 60s in town by Sunday and Monday.

Winds over the weekend will be light in the morning and pick up as the day goes on. Typical spring conditions over Mammoth Mountain and in the town of Mammoth Lakes.

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Looking West to Mammoth Mountain - Cal Trans Cam Looking SE at SB US 395

Mammoth Lakes Weather Forecast @ 7800 Feet MC Coy Station Weather Forecast @ 9600 Feet

Long Range: The Forecast calls for warming temperatures and dry conditions setting up for the weekend. We could see some cooling earaly next week and there is a slight chance of showers on Tuesday.

Beyond that we see clear blue skis with highs in the 40s and 50s all the way out in the 10-14 day forecast period.

PS Make sure to check our Snowman’s Mammoth Mountain Snow Report at this link.

Snowman out….

Snowman’s Live Cam at 8175 Feet on Canyon Blvd

Mammoth Mountain Satelight

Mammoth Mountain RadarMammoth Mountain Jet StreamMammoth Mountain 10 Day Precipitation OutlookMammoth Mountain Temperature OutlookMammoth Mountain 14 Day Rain and Snow OutlookMammoth Mountain 14 Day Temperature OutlookMJO Outlook Chart GFSPacific SST

Mammoth Mountain & Mammoth Lakes Weather

Looking Back at some Big H20 Winters 

2017 beat all of these with 100+ inches of H20

1. 1983 91.0″ H2O (83.7″ @ 4-1-83)

2. 1969 86.5″ H2O

3. 1995 80.0″ H2O

4. 1967 78.1″ H2O (55.4″ @ 4-1-67)

5. 2006 76.0″ H2O (63.6″ @ 4-1-06) ***

6. 1978 76.0″ H2O (67.8″ @ 4-1-78)

7. 1938 75.2″ H2O

8. 1986 74.0″ H2O (64.0″ @ 4-1-86)

9. 1952 73.7″ H2O

10. 1982 73.0″ H2O

11. 2005 72.5″ H2O (68.5″ @ 4-1-05)

12. 1993 67.1″ H2O

13. 1980 65.8″ H2O

14. 1941 64.0″ H2O

15. 1958 62.0″ H2O

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Steve TaylorSteve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman: Over the last 30+ years, Snowman have spent countless hours studying and learning about mammoth mountain weather and snow conditions first hand.

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with his Video & Photo Blog reports. (No You Tube back then)

Snowman has had his reports, videos and photos featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with Fox, ABC, CBS and NBC News. ________________________________________________________

Ted Schlaepfer – CCM – The Mammoth Weather GuyTed Schlaepfer – CCM – The Mammoth Weather Guy: Bio: Always fascinated with the weather, skiing was just a natural extension of my love for snow and rain.

I started skiing at age 5, first discovered Mammoth Mountain in 1979 as a youth, and have been a regular visitor since.

Putting together the Powder Outlook has been a lot of fun over the last 7 snow seasons.

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Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast

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Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast — Tuesday April 18th, 2017

Powder Forecast — Tuesday April 18th, 2017

Ted Schlaepfer CCM  —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy

Forecast Summary:

  Dry weather returns Wednesday and continues rest of the week with warmer temps by Friday and spring conditions everywhere on the mountain this weekend. Colder and windy weather with a chance for light snow is then expected by Tuesday next week with a slight chance for light snow at times end of next week and again beginning of May.  Generally seasonable weather with just a slight chance for an infrequent spring storm is then expected through mid-May or longer with spring conditions on the mountain.

Next update Saturday 4/22

Snowfall forecast are for the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge)

http://patrol.mammothmountain.com:83/Home.aspx

**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)

Actual Monday/Tuesday = 10.5” (H20 = 2.00”)

Wed 4/19 = ~8” (H20 = ~1.20”) **5

Thu 4/20 = 0”

Fri 4/21 = 0”

Sat 4/22 = 0”

Sun 4/23 = 0”

Mon 4/24 = 0”

Tue 4/25 = 0 – 3”

Wed – Fri 4/26 – 28 = 0 – 3”

April Snowfall = 61”
April Forecast = 70 – 75”

Seasonal Snowfall = 612”
Seasonal Forecast = 625 – 640”

Detailed 5-day Snowfall Forecast:

Wed 4/19 through Sat 4/22 — No snowfall expected all days.

Forecast Discussion:

Short Term:  

   Satellite imagery (below) shows the back end of a moist cold front now moving through the Mammoth area and snowfall will taper off this evening.   The front ended up being a lot more productive on the precipitation side, but unfortunately, snow levels stayed higher than forecast and did not come down as fast as expected.

  Nonetheless, Main lodge picked up close to 20” with Canyon lodge receiving a lot less and mostly rain for the bulk of the event.  I measured a solid 2 feet at the top of Blue Ox run early this afternoon so there is probably two and a half feet or more up top.  The snow is very heavy thick Sierra cement and the wind increased this afternoon so the snow up top may be wind affected along with the colder temps behind the front.

  It will be bluebird morning Wednesday for the powder up top with spring conditions likely returning for the lower part of the mountain by the afternoon with winter up top.  The next front and upper level low pressure system pictured in the satellite image above will move to the north of Mammoth early Thursday resulting in just an increase in NW winds.   Temps will warm up by the afternoon with spring everywhere but the top where there could be some wind buff.

  High pressure will continue to build over CA Friday and Saturday for fair and warmer weather.  Spring conditions are expected everywhere on the mountain by Friday afternoon.   The latest ECM model (image below) now moves a trough north of Mammoth on Sunday and Canyon closing day which would mean just slightly cooler temps and breezy conditions for the pond skim.

Long Range:

  The longer range ECM model (image below) is bringing a stronger upper level low to the coast around next Tuesday with a fairly strong front moving through NorCal.  It clips Mammoth with moderate snowfall early Tuesday adding up to almost half an inch liquid or a solid 3” snow.  The GFS and Canadian models are not as strong and a bit farther east with the low pressure system.  Right now it doesn’t look like enough for powder conditions, but there is a chance if it digs farther southward before it moves east.

   The ECM develops a deep upper level trough across the intermountain West late next week with short waves moving through Mammoth as slider type storms middle and late next week for periods of light snowfall.  The GFS is farther east with the trough and has the ridge off the coast nudged closer to CA for fair and typical spring weather.

   The current forecast for next week is a blend of the models which is similar to the ECM ensemble mean.  It has small amounts next week starting Tuesday and not enough each day for powder conditions, but dust on crust.  These nuisance lows are typical during spring when everyone wants spring turns but these lows produce firm snow and windy conditions.

   The GFS ensemble mean has a weak trough along the coast to start May (image below) which would represent another chance for light snowfall, but it is really too far out to know for sure how it will play out.   The climate models are generally favoring normal to slightly below normal precipitation through mid-May under a progressive pattern of lows moving into the PacNW.

   Overall, I am not expecting any big storms moving forward with just a chance for occasional weak storm and windy conditions, starting Tuesday next week.  The snowpack has now reached an apex and now spring has arrived.   WG

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