Powder Forecast — Friday May 26th, 2017
Ted Schlaepfer CCM —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy
Other than a chance for a late afternoon shower/thunderstorm each afternoon through next Tuesday, dry and warmer weather is expected during operations with no snowfall expected through early next week. There is a chance for light snow up top around Wednesday next week with just chance that snow levels will be as low as Main. Warmer weather is then possible again by the following weekend before cooler weather returns by end of following week. Generally spring/summer conditions are then expected for the rest of the season with seasonable weather through mid-June or longer with just a slight chance for a freak storm next month. No more powder days expected rest of season.
Next update November 2017
Snowfall forecast are for the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge)
**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)
Sat 5/27 = 0”
Sun 5/28 = 0”
Mon 5/29 = 0”
Tue 5/30 = 0”
Wed 5/31 = 0 -1”
Thu 6/1 = 0 – 1”
Fri 6/2 = 0”
Sat – Mon 6/3 – 5 = 0”
May Snowfall = 8”
May Forecast = 8”
June Forecast = 0”
Seasonal Snowfall = 627”
Seasonal Forecast = 627”
Detailed 5-day Snowfall Forecast:
Sat 5/27 – Tue 5/30 — No snowfall expected all days.
The ECM model (image below) re-strengthens the upper level ridge this weekend for fair and warmer weather after a cooler and breezy day today. Looks likes temps peak on Memorial Day with 50s expected up top and 60s at Main. There is a chance for a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm though, generally after the lifts close.
The ridge breaks down by the middle part of next week when a weak trough splits from the main jet and moves into CA on Wednesday. The ECM model (image below) is fairly weak with the dynamics and the GFS is only slightly stronger. The 12Z run of the Canadian is even weaker.
Both of the stronger models do develop some precipitation with the passage of this low pressure system with the GFS wetter, but only showing about a quarter inch of liquid. Both models keep snow levels quite high and around 10K, so if there is any snow, it will probably be up top.
It is still many days out and snow levels could end up as low as Main, but unlikely more than an inch or so would fall and powder conditions are not likely. Best bet right now is just cooler temperatures and breezy southwest winds.
The ECM (image below) then redevelops the upper level ridge over CA strongly over the following weekend for fair and warmer weather. The GFS is not as strong with the ridge as it has the weak cut-off upper level low off the C. Coast while the ECM model has it off the coast of Baja. Nonetheless, both models favor warmer weather over the following weekend.
The longer range GFS ensemble (image below) weakens the ridge by the middle part of the following week for just cooler temps and continued spring conditions on the hill. The ECM ensemble weakens it too, just not as much as the GFS. Regardless, spring continues.
The CFS longer range climate model is then showing typical June or slightly cooler than normal June weather (images below) through the middle part of June or longer. The ECM climate model is similar with that model suggesting that warmer than normal weather could return end of June or early July- way too far out for any confidence.
Regardless, powder days are over for the season and it will be spring turns from here on out. I hope you got your pow turns in over this record breaking season that may extend into August (pending race camps). Thanks for tuning into this blog this season, next update is in November. WG