Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast — April 25, 2017

Powder Forecast — Tuesday April 25th, 2017

Ted Schlaepfer CCM  —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy

Forecast Summary:

  Other than a chance for rain showers at Main and snow showers up top Wednesday afternoon, dry weather is expected for the next week or longer with no signs of any significant precipitation and/or snowfall.   Slightly cooler weather is expected Friday, then warmer weather with spring conditions on the entire mountain will start Saturday and continue through at least the middle part of next week before cooler weather is possible end of next week back to seasonably cool levels, but not winter-like.  Seasonably cool temps with a chance for an infrequent storm is favored for the second and third weeks of May.

Next update Friday 4/28

Snowfall forecast are for the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge)

http://patrol.mammothmountain.com:83/Home.aspx

**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)

Wed 4/26 = 0”

Thu 4/27 = 0”

Fri 4/28 = 0”

Sat 4/29 = 0”

Sun 4/30 = 0”

Mon 5/1 = 0”

Tue 5/2 = 0”

Wed – Fri 5/3 – 5/5 = 0”

April Snowfall = 68”
April Forecast = 68”

Seasonal Snowfall = 619”
Seasonal Forecast = 625 – 635”

Detailed 5-day Snowfall Forecast:

Wed 4/26 through Sat 4/29 — No snowfall expected all days.

Forecast Discussion:

Short Term:  

   Satellite imagery (below) shows clouds associated with frontal system moving into the Pacific Northwest with CA on the southern edge of the jet stream flow.  The weak storm currently off the Oregon coast will dig southward tomorrow through Nevada and the warm front will drag through CA during the day.

   That will lead to an increase in wind on the mountain along with cloudiness by the afternoon with light rain showers possible at Main and snow showers up top with the snow levels around 9.5-10K.   Maybe an inch could fall up top.

   Another upper level low will take a track southward farther inland like a true inside slider Thursday and into Friday (image below) as models develop a deep trough in the mid-continent.  That means slightly cooler temps with firmer snow up top by Friday and snow elsewhere slower to soften along with continued breezy to gusty northerly winds.

Long Range:

  The numerical guidance is then in agreement that the ridge of high pressure currently well off the CA coast will nudge eastward into CA over the weekend (image below).    Freezing levels will get above 12K by Sunday which means spring conditions everywhere on the mountain under plenty of sunshine and light winds.  Pack the sunscreen.

   These conditions are favored to hold through most of next week.  The GFS ensemble along with the ECM operational model extended range forecast favor the ridge to move eastward by the following weekend for cooler weather as a weak trough sets up along the West Coast (image below).   It doesn’t look strong enough for snowfall, but should cool temps back to seasonably cool levels.

   The climate models, CFS and ECM version, are both favoring a weak trough under a split jet stream along the West Coast during the second and third weeks of May (images below).  This is a progressive pattern and not a stagnant ridge of high pressure with storm system moving into the PacNW every couple of days of varying strength.

   Whether enough energy moves southward into CA and Mammoth under this pattern is unknown at this time and not generally favored, but there is certainly a chance for an infrequent storm under this type of pattern.  It does favor seasonably cool temps which means a slower snow-melt for most of May, particularly for the top of the mountain, but we will have to wait on any potential late season powder days.  WG

Posted in Mammoth Lakes Weather Forecast, Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion, Mammoth Weather | Tagged | Comments Off on Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast — April 25, 2017

4-24-2016 – Mammoth Mountain & Mammoth Lakes Weather Report

4-24-1017 – 9AM – Hello from Mammoth Mountain and Mammoth Lakes, California.

At this time we have cloudy skies with some snow showers in the area. Temperatures have cooled off and we have gusty winds in the area.

Today we will have highs in town in the mid 40s, with winds gusting to 25-35 MPH at times.

Up at Main Lodge expect highs in the 30s, checking the patrol site it was 28 at the time of this post. Winds are gusting to 30 MPH at Main and up top 103 MPH at the top of Mammoth Mountain.  Wind speeds will slowly back down over the next 12 hours.

On Tuesday we will have clear skies with some warming in the area and light winds, by Wednesday expect more showers and then clear skies and warming temperatures for the weekend.

The fishing opener looks to have highs in the 50s in Mammoth Lakes with Crowley getting into the low 60s. Night time lows will be in the 30’s so be prepared if your camping this weekend.

______________________________________________________________

Looking West to Mammoth Mountain - Cal Trans Cam Looking SE at SB US 395

Mammoth Lakes Weather Forecast @ 7800 Feet MC Coy Station Weather Forecast @ 9600 Feet

Long Range: Weather models keep forecasting warming and then they back off. So confidence in any long range forecast is low. The outlook beyond next weekend if for cooler then normal conditions in the great basin. When that happens Mammoth gets a NE flow and not a much warming.

Up on the ski area that makes the snow stay hard on the face of chair 3 and over the top of the mountain. If your thinking of coming up for skiing next week I would check the forecast late this week to see if that is still in the cards.

PS Make sure to check  Snowman’s Mammoth Mountain Snow Report at this link.

Snowman out….

Snowman’s Live Cam at 8175 Feet on Canyon Blvd

Mammoth Mountain Satelight

Mammoth Mountain RadarMammoth Mountain Jet StreamMammoth Mountain 10 Day Precipitation OutlookMammoth Mountain Temperature OutlookMammoth Mountain 14 Day Rain and Snow OutlookMammoth Mountain 14 Day Temperature OutlookMJO Outlook Chart GFSPacific SST

Mammoth Mountain & Mammoth Lakes Weather

Looking Back at some Big H20 Winters 

2017 beat all of these with 100+ inches of H20

1. 1983 91.0″ H2O (83.7″ @ 4-1-83)

2. 1969 86.5″ H2O

3. 1995 80.0″ H2O

4. 1967 78.1″ H2O (55.4″ @ 4-1-67)

5. 2006 76.0″ H2O (63.6″ @ 4-1-06) ***

6. 1978 76.0″ H2O (67.8″ @ 4-1-78)

7. 1938 75.2″ H2O

8. 1986 74.0″ H2O (64.0″ @ 4-1-86)

9. 1952 73.7″ H2O

10. 1982 73.0″ H2O

11. 2005 72.5″ H2O (68.5″ @ 4-1-05)

12. 1993 67.1″ H2O

13. 1980 65.8″ H2O

14. 1941 64.0″ H2O

15. 1958 62.0″ H2O

______________________________________________

Steve TaylorSteve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman: Over the last 30+ years, Snowman have spent countless hours studying and learning about mammoth mountain weather and snow conditions first hand.

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with his Video & Photo Blog reports. (No You Tube back then)

Snowman has had his reports, videos and photos featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with Fox, ABC, CBS and NBC News. ________________________________________________________

Ted Schlaepfer – CCM – The Mammoth Weather GuyTed Schlaepfer – CCM – The Mammoth Weather Guy: Bio: Always fascinated with the weather, skiing was just a natural extension of my love for snow and rain.

I started skiing at age 5, first discovered Mammoth Mountain in 1979 as a youth, and have been a regular visitor since.

Putting together the Powder Outlook has been a lot of fun over the last 7 snow seasons.

______________________________________________________________

Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast

Posted in Mammoth Lakes Weather Forecast, Mammoth Mountain Weather Discussion, Mammoth Weather | Comments Off on 4-24-2016 – Mammoth Mountain & Mammoth Lakes Weather Report