Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast — Friday May 26th, 2017

Powder Forecast — Friday May 26th, 2017

Ted Schlaepfer CCM  —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy

Forecast Summary:

  Other than a chance for a late afternoon shower/thunderstorm each afternoon through next Tuesday, dry and warmer weather is expected during operations with no snowfall expected through early next week.   There is a chance for light snow up top around Wednesday next week with just chance that snow levels will be as low as Main.  Warmer weather is then possible again by the following weekend before cooler weather returns by end of following week.   Generally spring/summer conditions are then expected for the rest of the season with seasonable weather through mid-June or longer with just a slight chance for a freak storm next month.  No more powder days expected rest of season.

Next update November 2017

Snowfall forecast are for the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge)

http://patrol.mammothmountain.com:83/Home.aspx

**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)

Sat 5/27 = 0”

Sun 5/28 = 0”

Mon 5/29 = 0”

Tue 5/30 = 0”

Wed 5/31 = 0 -1”

Thu 6/1 = 0 – 1”

Fri 6/2 = 0”

Sat – Mon 6/3 – 5 = 0”

May Snowfall = 8”
May Forecast = 8”

June Forecast = 0”

Seasonal Snowfall = 627”
Seasonal Forecast = 627”

Detailed 5-day Snowfall Forecast:

Sat 5/27 – Tue 5/30 — No snowfall expected all days.

Forecast Discussion:

Short Term:  

   The ECM model (image below) re-strengthens the upper level ridge this weekend for fair and warmer weather after a cooler and breezy day today.  Looks likes temps peak on Memorial Day with 50s expected up top and 60s at Main.  There is a chance for a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm though, generally after the lifts close.

   The ridge breaks down by the middle part of next week when a weak trough splits from the main jet and moves into CA on Wednesday.   The ECM model (image below) is fairly weak with the dynamics and the GFS is only slightly stronger.   The 12Z run of the Canadian is even weaker.

   Both of the stronger models do develop some precipitation with the passage of this low pressure system with the GFS wetter, but only showing about a quarter inch of liquid.   Both models keep snow levels quite high and around 10K, so if there is any snow, it will probably be up top.

    It is still many days out and snow levels could end up as low as Main, but unlikely more than an inch or so would fall and powder conditions are not likely.   Best bet right now is just cooler temperatures and breezy southwest winds.

Long Range:

   The ECM (image below) then redevelops the upper level ridge over CA strongly over the following weekend for fair and warmer weather.   The GFS is not as strong with the ridge as it has the weak cut-off upper level low off the C. Coast while the ECM model has it off the coast of Baja.   Nonetheless, both models favor warmer weather over the following weekend.

   The longer range GFS ensemble (image below) weakens the ridge by the middle part of the following week for just cooler temps and continued spring conditions on the hill.   The ECM ensemble weakens it too, just not as much as the GFS.  Regardless, spring continues.

   The CFS longer range climate model is then showing typical June or slightly cooler than normal June weather (images below) through the middle part of June or longer.  The ECM climate model is similar with that model suggesting that warmer than normal weather could return end of June or early July- way too far out for any confidence.

    Regardless, powder days are over for the season and it will be spring turns from here on out.  I hope you got your pow turns in over this record breaking season that may extend into August (pending race camps).  Thanks for tuning into this blog this season, next update is in November.  WG

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Mammoth Mountain Weather Forecast — Friday May 19th, 2017

Powder Forecast — Friday April 19th, 2017

Ted Schlaepfer CCM  —- Mammoth Mountain WeatherGuy

Forecast Summary:

  Other than a chance for a late afternoon shower/thunderstorm starting Saturday and each afternoon through next Thursday, dry weather is expected during operations with no snowfall expected for the rest of May and probably season.  Generally spring conditions is expected for the entire forecast period and probably end of month with no signs of seasonably cool weather until possibly early June.  Seasonably cool weather with just a slight chance for a freak storm is then expected through early June before warmer weather is possible second week of June.

Next update Friday 5/26

Snowfall forecast are for the Sesame snow course (Main Lodge)

http://patrol.mammothmountain.com:83/Home.aspx

**Snowfall forecast confidence ranges from very low (1) to very high (5)

Sat 5/20 = 0”

Sun 5/21 = 0”

Mon 5/22 = 0”

Tue 5/23 = 0”

Wed 5/24 = 0”

Thu 5/25 = 0”

Fri 5/26 = 0”

Sat – Mon 5/27 – 5/29 = 0”

May Snowfall = 8”
May Forecast = 8”

Seasonal Snowfall = 627”
Seasonal Forecast = 627”

Detailed 5-day Snowfall Forecast:

Sat 5/20 – Tue 5/23 — No snowfall expected all days.

Forecast Discussion:

Short Term:  

   Satellite imagery (below) shows a high pressure ridge is positioned off the California coast with a weak short wave riding over the top of the ridge into British Columbia.   That short wave will move southward as an inside slider into Utah over the weekend with the only real affect for Mammoth will be to keep temperatures  relatively flat or only slightly warmer by Sunday plus introducing a chance for a late afternoon shower/thunderstorm.

   The ridge (image below) is then forecast by the models to move farther eastward toward the coast on Monday where it will hold steady through the middle part of next week for further warming through mid-week with freezing levels getting up to 13K and temps up top around 50 F by Tuesday and next Wednesday.

Long Range:

   The ECM (image below) weakens the ridge slightly toward the end of next week for only slightly cooler weather and continued spring conditions on the hill.  The SW flow may inhibit thunderstorm formations for a few days.

   The ECM (image below) model then redevelops the ridge along the West Coast over Memorial Day Holiday weekend with the stronger part of the ridge forming north of CA and in British Columbia with a weaker high pressure area over CA.  Nonetheless, it means warmer weather again over the weekend with the GFS model saying temps up top could get into the mid-50s by Memorial Day.

   That pattern should hold until early June with the longer range GFS ensemble (image below) is favoring the formation of a weak low pressure trough along the West Coast and CA.   That would mean cooler weather, but still spring conditions on the mountain.  The trough doesn’t look deep enough to support a storm right now with just a very slight chance that a freak storm could move into Mammoth under this scenario.

   The GFS ensemble mean (image below) basically keeps the same pattern going through the first week of June.  The CFS and ECM climate models are in general agreement.   While there could be a freak storm like mentioned above, the likely scenario would be cooler temps and breezy or windy conditions at times.

   Both the CFS and ECM climate models are then suggesting that a period of warmer than normal weather (image below) could develop over the second week of June for more spring or even summer type conditions.   Overall, all the numerical guidance is suggesting a long stretch of spring weather continues through the end of the month with no signs of any more snowfall.   The last update of the season is next Friday.  WG

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