Mammoth Mountain & Eastern Sierra Recreational Weather

Sunday, June 30th, 2024 @ 11 AM Good morning. It’s a gorgeous mid-summer morning in the Eastern Sierra, with clear to hazy skies.

Early this morning, smoke dissipated from a wildfire flare-up to the west of the Eastern Sierra near Fresno. AQI levels at sunrise were near 120 near Mammoth, with reads in the 85 range in Bishop. Over the last few hours, most of that bad air has blown out of the area.

Currently, at the top of Mammoth Mountain, the temperature is 49 degrees, and the south wind is at 23 MPH, gusting to 29 MPH. Down at the Mammoth Mountain Main Lodge, the temperature this morning is 59, with a WSW wind at 4 to 15 MPH.

The next couple of days will have temperatures just above average for this time of year. By Tuesday, a very strong ridge of high pressure will start to affect the area, with very warm to very hot conditions developing. Mammoth looks to be in the mid-to-upper 80s by July 4th, with Bishop in the mid-100s. It looks like the Dogs Days of Summer July weather is upon us; July 4th seems to almost always kick it off.

If you’re traveling to the area, we suggest you carry extra food, water, and shade as you come up the HOT Owens Valley this week. You also might want to bring a fan with you for better sleep. Stale, warm high country air can be hard to sleep in, so the fan helps to cool things down so you get some great rest for your next day’s adventure in the area.

Satellite View of the Eastern Pacific and CaliforniaHere is what you can expect in the High Country into next Thursday: Skies will be mostly clear through Monday, with zero chances of any thunderstorms. By Tuesday into Wednesday, you might see some isolated build-ups with the expected heat in the area. The ECM model even shows some isolated T Storms with light QPF in the high country above Mammoth and around Big Pine.

Mid-day temperatures at the 8900-foot level (Main Lodge / Lake Mary) will be in the upper 60s to low 70s into Monday. By midweek, mid-day temperatures will be up into the upper 70s, with even a lower 80 possible right into Thursday and beyond. Overnight lows in the high country will be comfortable in the upper 40s to lower 50s, warming up into the upper 50s later in the week.

Winds on Mammoth Mountain and over the higher elevations will be SW at 5-15 MPH, with gusts up to 25 MPH during the afternoon. Expect stronger gusts over Sierra ridges and at the top of Mammoth Mountain.

Temperatures in Mammoth Lakes will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with nighttime lows in the upper 40s to low 50s through Monday. By Tuesday, temperatures will be coming up in town, with mid- to upper 80s by July 4th and lasting into Thursday and beyond.

Overnight lows will also warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be out of SW at 5-10 MPH, with gusts to 15 MPH at times.

Midday temperatures from Crowley Lake to Toms Place will be in the mid-80s to upper 80s into Monday, with mid-day temperatures into the low 90s by midweek, with overnight lows into the low to mid-50s rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s by midweek.

For Bishop to Mill Pond, the extreme Summer is on the way. Today’s afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 90s, followed by a very hot 105-107 by midweek and lasting into next weekend. Late tonight’s overnight low will be in the low to mid-50s, and by midweek, lows will be in the mid-to-upper 60s at sunrise. Expect afternoon winds of 5-10 MPH, with gusts up to 15 MPH possible.

NWS Main Lodge Forecast - Mammoth Mountain Weather Image
NWS Main Lodge Forecast – Mammoth Mountain Weather Image

MSLP GIF out 144 hours. Into Sunday, it will be clear and dry with average temperatures, and then a slow warming trend will begin with more dry conditions.

(MSLP) is the atmospheric pressure at the mean sea level. It is usually shown on radio, television, newspapers, or Internet weather reports.

MLSP 144 Hour Forecast - Mammoth Mountain Weather Image

Mammoth / Eastern Sierra Weather Story: This week’s story will be about the very strong ridge of high pressure that will bring the first extended heat wave of the season to the Eastern Sierra.

This one looks HOT, with temperatures in Mammoth possibly getting into the upper 80s and possibly the 90s, and Bishop is expected to hit the 107 mark by next Wednesday. How long will the warm days be with us? It looks like a good week to ten days, followed by a short cool down with more hot weather.

Snowman

The Mammoth Weather Story - A Ridge of High Pressure will Rule the Weather this July 4th Holiday - 6-30-2024
The Mammoth Weather Story – A Ridge of High Pressure will Rule the Weather this July 4th Holiday – 6-30-2024

15-Day ECM 500mb Anomaly GIF: Below is the entire 15-day run of the ECMWF ensemble model. I use this model to tell the Mammoth Weather Story you just read above. Compared to the other models, this solution has been effective more often than not over the years.

ECMWF 500mb Height Anomaly - Mammoth Mountain Weather GIF
ECMWF 500mb Height Anomaly – Mammoth Mountain Weather GIF

Temperature Anomaly GIF: Temperatures will remain above average to well above average for the foreseeable future. The best time to get out and play will be early morning for hiking and biking. Afternoons look good for being out on the water or on the shoreline.

*The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was cooler than the reference value.

Temperature Anomaly - Mammoth Mountain Weather GIFThe Wind Forecast GIF – Looking at the ECMWF wind forecast, wind speeds over the next week will be gusty during the afternoon and early evening hours. That’s when you can expect SW winds at 10-25+ MPH over the high country and wind-prone areas of the Eastern Sierra. Yep, the wind forecast is about the same all Summer Long. The GIF below shows peak wind gusts over a 6-hour time frame.

Wind Speed Forecast - Mammoth Mountain Weather GIFJet Stream – This is the ECMWF ENS Run of the Jet Stream at 200 hPa.

144 Hour Jet Stream - Mammoth Mountain Weather GIF
144 Hour Jet Stream – Mammoth Mountain Weather GIF

Precipitable Water 144-Hour GIF

Precipitable Water (Inches) - Mammoth Mountain Weather GIF
Precipitable Water (Inches) – Mammoth Mountain Weather GIF

Precipitable Water Anomaly 144-Hour GIF

Precipitable Water Anomaly - Mammoth Mountain Weather GIF45 ECMWF ENS Run – According to the long-range ECM run below, July is set to start out HOT now and then be warm but not excessively hot the second half of the month. Precipitation, as expected, is looking on the drier side. That could change, so don’t give up hope on a good monsoon run at some point during the month.

This is the long-range ultra fantasy model run. These runs are good for looking at upcoming trends in the overall weather pattern.

45-Day - ECMWF 500mb Height Anomaly - Mammoth Mountain Weather GIF
45-Day – ECMWF 500mb Height Anomaly – Mammoth Mountain Weather GIF

Summer 2024 & Longer Range Outlooks: Expect above-average temperatures with a below-average monsoon season for the Summer Weather Season. I am not 100% convinced we will be as dry as models have shown during the spring.

Now that it’s June, I’d like to start looking at the ECMWF Seasonal Precipitation Model runs out six months. Below, you will find the 500mb Height anomaly for each month into November. Those will be followed the the precipitation anomaly images for each of those months. 

500mb Height Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
June – 500mb Height Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
500mb Height Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
July – 500mb Height Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
500mb Height Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
August – 500mb Height Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
500mb Height Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
September – 500mb Height Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
500mb Height Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
October – 500mb Height Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
500mb Height Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
November – 500mb Height Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
June - Precipitation Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
June – Precipitation Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
July - Precipitation Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
July – Precipitation Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
August - Precipitation Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
August – Precipitation Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
September - Precipitation Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
September -Precipitation Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
October - Precipitation Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
October -Precipitation Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update
November - Precipitation Anomaly - ECMWF Seasonal - June 2024 Update
November – Precipitation Anomaly – ECMWF Seasonal – June 2024 Update

Last Update from DWP Precipitation for Mammoth Pass & the Eastern Sierra

El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Watch

ENSO State Update
ENSO State Update
ENSO State Update
ENSO State Update
ENSO State Update
ENSO State Update
ENSO State Update
ENSO State Update
ENSO State Update
ENSO State Update

* Mammoth Mountain and Eastern Sierra Weather is updated several times a week by local Steve Taylor. The goal is to provide detailed weather forecasts presented in an easy-to-read format. This isn’t a Hype, one-and-done model-run website. It’s just the basic facts from how I see it after 40 years of being involved in the local weather and recreation. And yes, I use Weather Bell for my forecasting data.

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Author – Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand. He has been skiing around the hill with marked ski poles since March of 1991 so he can measure the fresh snowfall amounts out on the hill. 

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with Video & Photo Blog reports. (No YouTube back then). Facebook got added to the fold back in 2008 and then the Facebook Group in 2016. 

Reports, videos, and photos from the website have been featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth and Bishop, along with KTLA, AP, Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC News.

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