Mammoth Mountain Today – 11-23-2014

"Storm Coming or Bust?"

Click to see the full image – “Storm Coming or Bust?”

11-23-2014 – 9:00AM – The window-cast from out on Mammoth Mountain shows clears skis at this time with a trace of new snow above 9500 feet.

Current Weather Conditions: Up top we have a temperature of 18 and a NE wind gusting to 78 MPH.  At the Main Lodge it’s 26 with light winds at this time.

Update on Snowmaking:  The upgraded system has been running just about nightly.  This has allowed the ski area to open more lifts and runs.

The snowmaking crews are now starting to work on Forest Trail Park, Mambo, Jill’s Run, and Stump Alley.  Main Park is also getting more snow for a continued build out of jumps, jibs and features.

Runs expected to be open for Thanksgiving Week: Sesame Street, Broadway, Andy’s Double Gold*, Powder Bowl, Silver Tip, Main Park, The mini Wall & Saddle Bowl. *will be closed at times for race clinics

Lifts that are running: Chairs 1, 3, 6 and 11 and G1 are open for the season (wind and weather permitting).   You can take Gondola 2 to the top for a scenic ride as well during this Thanksgiving Holiday Week.


Mammoth Mountain Snow Report:  Yesterdays storm came in warm and we picked up rain, sleet and a bit of snow higher up on the hill at the end of the event.   Snowmaking and Grooming should take away most of the wet effects, but there will be some more icy spots out there so watch out today.

Over the last week we have been skiing and riding groomers on Broadway, Andy’s Double Gold, Silver Tip & Main Park. Saddle Bowl & Powder Bowl got added into the mix on Friday.

All runs have a base of 10-20 inches of machine groomed man made packed snow along with some hard pack snow that softens up during the day.  As the day goes on try skiing and riding on the sides of the runs for some great soft snow.

There are a few icy spots out there so watch out for them. Please also watch for small floating rocks and a few bare spots.

In the Main Park you will find 9 jibs and one nice large jump. I would expect those numbers to go up for the holiday weekend as they have more area covered with man made snow to work with.

The forecast is calling for clear blue skies with temperatures in the 40s on Mammoth Mountain thru Friday.

McCoy_Chair_3_1280x720Mammoth Mountain Weather, Wind Forecast for Thanksgiving week:   Look for highs on the mountain in the 30s today and Monday and then into the 40s thru Friday.

Night time lows look to be in the 20s moving into the 30s as the week moves on. Winds are northeast 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph and as of this AM gusts to 70 up top.   Winds should die down and turn SW 10-15MPH on Tuesday.

Canyon Lodge and Little Eagle Lodges:  Are closed until we get natural snow or until they can make snow in these areas. Open dates for those areas are set for December 17th, 2014.

More Mammoth Mountain Coupons and deals from the Snowman.

Free Ski Wax at Footloose Sports in Mammoth Lakes ski-renter

 

Extended Weather Images & Outlooks 

First off you can find the Weather Guys Powder Report on our MammothSnowman.com Weather Page.  He updates on Tuesdays and Fridays around 2pm.

Below are charts and images that Snowman is looking at that he would like to share with you.

These right now are images of hope for falling snow.  :)   The image to the left is the newest GFS in the 6-10 period.

Below is the 30 day forecast from NOAA.

2014-11-23_0804Below are the last two runs of the GFS the 00Z and 6Z… I will post up the 12z when it comes out.   Looking at that image below the 6z has around 2+ inches of water forecast for the mammoth area over the next 14 days. gfs_total_precip_west_496z

 

gfs_total_precip_west_49

Looking at all the models and ensembles there is support for 2-3 inches of water coming in for a brief pattern change for the 1st week of December.

What could be causing this is the MJO that we have imaged below is now into phase 3, in most cases it takes about a week for the change to get here.   Beyond that the EURO is forecasting the MJO into phase 4 and that would shut down any storm door in time.

The GFS has it going neutral and then back into Phase 1 again.  Maybe it going back to neutral would keep the storms coming beyond what our forecasted in the models at this time.

NCPE_phase_21m_smallECMF_phase_51m_smallLook below to see the phases for November – January and what the result is precipitation wide.  2014-11-21_0734bcfs_tprecip_noram_2014112300_x61cfs_tprecip_noram_2014112300_51cfs_tprecip_noram_2014112300_x81

cfs_tprecip_noram_2014112300_t45______________________________________________________________________

Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman: Over the last 30+ years, Snowman have spent countless hours studying and learning about mammoth mountain weather and snow conditions first hand.

Snowman started blogging this information back in 1990 on the old Mammoth BBS system, then the RSN Forums and then on to MammothSnowman.com in 2004 with his Video & Photo Blog reports. (No You Tube back then)

Snowman has had his reports, videos and photos featured on both local TV Stations here in Mammoth, along with AP, Fox, ABC, CBS and NBC News. _________________________________________________________________________


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